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Category Archives: Unemployment

Real Work Force – 02/28/14

Graph - General - Decreasing - 01

The FedGov released its unemployment propaganda for February 2014 showing an increase in the unemployment rate from 6.6% to 6.7% with a better than expected 175,000 jobs created.

The Gray Lady’s cheerleaders applauded:

As Job Creation Increases in February, Economists See Signs of a Spring Thaw

…The American economy appeared to emerge from a winter hibernation in February, creating more jobs than in either of the previous two months and suggesting that momentum in the labor market might gradually build with the arrival of spring.

…but still included this sober statement:

…the payroll gain in February was still well short of the pace needed to return the economy to full employment anytime soon or to quickly reduce the ranks of the long-term unemployed.

At Forbes, the somber discussion

The total number of out-of-work Americans held steady at about 10.5 million, the Labor Department reported. The [FedGov version] labor participation rate, a key gauge of the percentage of working-age Americans currently employed, held steady at 63%, its lowest level in four decades.

FedGov calculations still don’t really show the true picture of employment in America.  They don’t answer this question:

Ignoring all demographics, who is in the wagon versus who is pulling the wagon?

How many people are working as a percent of all the people in the United States?  Here’s the trend…

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RWF - 20140228 - Real Work Force - 01

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No change in the headline number this month, so while 175,000 jobs is good, many Americans tried to re-enter the work force with no luck.

At the end of Clinton’s administration, over 50% of the population in America were in the labor force!  That number stayed mostly the same and then increased through through the early parts of 2007.  That percentage has decreased since the beginning of 2007 and is now down by fully 2%.  You’re welcome to comment below as to what happened in early 2007 to turn the trend around.

In today’s numbers, that’s a reduction of almost 6,000,000 jobs.

Below is the percentage of change from month-to-month

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RWF - 20140228 - Real Work Force (Percent Change) - 01

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Labor Force Data from bls.gov:

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RWF - 20140228 - Labor Force - 01

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Population Estimate from census.gov

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RWF - 20140228 - Population Estimate - 01

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Things won’t get better in this country until millions more people are pulling the wagon!

 
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Posted by on April 1, 2014 in Economy, Unemployment

 

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Real Work Force – 01/31/14

Graph - General - Decreasing - 01

The FedGov released its unemployment propaganda for January 2014 showing another drop in the unemployment rate from 6.7% to 6.6% with below expectations 113,000 jobs created.

The “Drum”beat leftists at Mother Jones believe austerity was madness:

This is the price of austerity. If public sector employment had been growing normally during this period, we’d have about a million more jobs than we do now and the unemployment rate would probably be below 6 percent. We are our own worst enemies.

At HotAir, soberly…

Still, we need to add 150,000 jobs a month to keep pace with population growth. We’re closer to it than in December, which was upgraded to 75,000 jobs added, but still far off the pace for even stagnation.

FedGov calculations still don’t really show the true picture of employment in America.  They don’t answer this question:

Ignoring all demographics, who is in the wagon versus who is pulling the wagon?

How many people are working as a percent of all the people in the United States?  Here’s the trend…

.

RWF - 20140131 - Real Work Force - 01.

A bit of a bump this month, but note that the Labor Force in January of 2014 is SMALLER than the Labor Force in January 2013.

At the end of Clinton’s administration, over 50% of the population in America were in the labor force!  That number stayed mostly the same and then increased through through the early parts of 2007.  That percentage has decreased since the beginning of 2007 and is now down by fully 2%.  You’re welcome to comment below as to what happened in early 2007 to turn the trend around.

In today’s numbers, that’s a reduction of almost 6,000,000 jobs.

Below is the percentage of change from month-to-month

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RWF - 20140131 - Real Work Force (Percent Change) - 01

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Labor Force Data from bls.gov:

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RWF - 20140131 - Labor Force - 01

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Population Estimate from census.gov

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RWF - 20140131 - Population Estimate - 01

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Things won’t get better in this country until millions more people are pulling the wagon!

 
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Posted by on February 16, 2014 in Economy, Unemployment

 

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Real Work Force – 12/31/13

Graph - General - Decreasing - 01

The FedGov released its unemployment propaganda for December 2013 showing a massive 0.3% drop in the unemployment rate to 6.7% with measly 74,000 jobs created.

The Liberal Cheerleaders at ThinkProgress could only muster a matter-of-fact tone:

Retail added 55,000 jobs in December and food service and drinking places added 9,000 jobs, while professional and business services added 19,000 jobs. Government employment fell by 13,000

Heritage finds a trend:

This continues a long-term trend over the year of unemployment falling because of fewer Americans looking for work. The employment-to-population ratio has not improved over the past year despite a 1.2 percentage point drop in the unemployment rate. Long-term unemployment also persists at historically high rates despite the large decline in the number of unemployed. Almost two-fifths of the unemployed—3.9 million workers—have been out of work for over six months. The proportion of jobless in long-term unemployment has barely improved over the course of the recovery. Most of December’s drop in unemployment came from those out of work for less than six months.

FedGov calculations still don’t really show the true picture of employment in America.  They don’t answer this question:

Ignoring all demographics, who is in the wagon versus who is pulling the wagon?

How many people are working as a percent of all the people in the United States?  Here’s the trend…

.

RWF - 20131231 - Real Work Force - 01.

Down she goes to the lowest Real Work Force of the Century.

At the end of Clinton’s administration, over 50% of the population in America were in the labor force!  That number stayed mostly the same and then increased through through the early parts of 2007.  That percentage has decreased since the beginning of 2007 and is now down by fully 2%.  You’re welcome to comment below as to what happened in early 2007 to turn the trend around.

In today’s numbers, that’s a reduction of almost 6,000,000 jobs.

Below is the percentage of change from month-to-month

.

RWF - 20131231 - Real Work Force (Percent Change) - 01.

Labor Force Data from bls.gov:

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RWF - 20131231 - Labor Force - 01

Population Estimate from census.gov

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RWF - 20131231 - Population Estimate - 01

.

 

Things won’t get better in this country until millions more people are pulling the wagon!

 
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Posted by on January 30, 2014 in Economy, Unemployment

 

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Real Work Force – 11/30/13

Graph - General - Decreasing - 01

The FedGov released its unemployment propaganda for November 2013 showing a 0.2% drop in the unemployment rate.

Politico trumpeted that the Unemployment Rate had hit a 5-year low!

MJ Lee noted, “The economy added 203,000 jobs in November while the unemployment rate dropped to 7 percent, the Labor Department reported on Friday. The last time that the unemployment rate stood below 7 percent was in November 2008.”

The Wall Street Journal found come caveats:

But here’s the bad news: the increase in the number of people in the labor force didn’t make up all the ground lost by the huge drop in October. Even though 455,000 people were added to those working or looking for a job, the labor force is still 265,000 people short of where it was in September.

The participation rate, the labor force as a percent of the whole population, rose to 63% in November but is still down from 63.2% in October. That rate remains at its lowest level since 1978 when large numbers of women were entering the work force for the first time.

Despite this month’s improvement, there’s still a big hole in the jobs market More than four million people have been out of work for more than six months and nearly 11 million in total are looking for work.

FedGov calculations still don’t really show the true picture of employment in America.  They don’t answer this question:

Ignoring all demographics, who is in the wagon versus who is pulling the wagon?

How many people are working as a percent of all the people in the United States?  Here’s the trend…

.

RWF - 20131130 - Real Work Force - 01.

That’s a nice uptick although one can certainly expect a revision at the end of 2013.

At the end of Clinton’s administration, over 50% of the population in America were in the labor force!  That number stayed mostly the same and then increased through through the early parts of 2007.  That percentage has decreased since the beginning of 2007 and is now down by fully 2%.  You’re welcome to comment below as to what happened in early 2007 to turn the trend around.

In today’s numbers, that’s a reduction of almost 6,000,000 jobs.

Below is the percentage of change from month-to-month

.

RWF - 20131130 - Real Work Force (Percent Change) - 01

.

Labor Force Data from bls.gov:

RWF - 20131130 - Labor Force - 01

Population Estimate from census.gov

RWF - 20131130 - Population Estimate - 01

Things won’t get better in this country until millions more people are pulling the wagon!

 
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Posted by on December 10, 2013 in Economy, Unemployment

 

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Real Work Force – 10/31/13

Graph - General - Decreasing - 01

The FedGov released its unemployment propaganda for October 2013 showing a 0.1% bump in the unemployment rate.

I’m sure you can imagine that Breitbart and the NYT spun the news a bit differently:

Mike Flynn noted, “Over the last year, the economy has averaged 190k new jobs each month. This level is below the amount of job creation necessary to keep pace with population growth. Many more jobs than this, however, are needed to trim the ranks of the long-term unemployed and bring discouraged workers back into the labor force.”

For Nelson Schwartz, “Defying predictions that the government shutdown would sap job growth, private employers added more than 200,000 positions in October, well above even the most optimistic estimates on Wall Street.

FedGov calculations still don’t really show the true picture of employment in America.  They don’t answer this question:

Ignoring all demographics, who is in the wagon versus who is pulling the wagon?

How many people are working as a percent of all the people in the United States?  Here’s the trend…

.

RWF - 20131031 - Real Work Force - 01

.

At the end of Clinton’s administration, over 50% of the population in America were in the labor force!  That number stayed mostly the same and then increased through through the early parts of 2007.  That percentage has decreased since the beginning of 2007 and is now down by fully 2%.  You’re welcome to comment below as to what happened in early 2007 to turn the trend around.

In today’s numbers, that’s a reduction of almost 6,000,000 jobs.

Below is the percentage of change from month-to-month

.

RWF - 20131031 - Real Work Force (Percent Change) - 01

.

Labor Force Data from bls.gov:

RWF - 20131031 - Labor Force - 01

Population Estimate from census.gov

RWF - 20131031 - Population Estimate - 01

Things won’t get better in this country until millions more people are pulling the wagon!

 
1 Comment

Posted by on November 8, 2013 in Economy, Unemployment

 

Tags: , , ,

Real Work Force – 09/30/13

Graph - General - Decreasing - 01

The FedGov released its unemployment propaganda for September 2013 showing another 0.1% drop in the unemployment rate.  Our friends at CNN spun it as positively as possible saying, “But the good news is the unemployment rate fell to 7.2% as 73,000 people joined the labor force and 133,000 people said they got jobs. That’s considered encouraging, after months in which thousands of Americans were dropping out of the workforce.”

At ZeroHedge, they didn’t see it so rosily, “September jobs are a disappointment at 148K vs expectations of 180K and private jobs only 126K well below the 180K expected, but August was revised higher this time, from 169K to 193K even as July dipped once again from 104K to 89K. Net for the three months, largely a wash.”

FedGov calculations still don’t really show the true picture of employment in America.  They don’t answer this question:

Ignoring all demographics, who is in the wagon versus who is pulling the wagon?

How many people are working as a percent of all the people in the United States?  Here’s the trend…

.RWF - 20130930 - Real Work Force - 01 .

At the end of Clinton’s administration, over 50% of the population in America were in the labor force!  That number stayed mostly the same and then increased through through the early parts of 2007.  That percentage has decreased since the beginning of 2007 and is now down by fully 2%.  You’re welcome to comment below as to what happened in early 2007 to turn the trend around.

In today’s numbers, that’s a reduction of almost 6,000,000 jobs.

Below is the percentage of change from month-to-month

. RWF - 20130930 - Real Work Force (Percent Change) - 01.

Labor Force Data from bls.gov:

RWF - 20130930 - Labor Force - 01

Population Estimate from census.gov

RWF - 20130930 - Labor Force - 01

Things won’t get better in this country until millions more people are pulling the wagon!

 
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Posted by on October 30, 2013 in Economy, Unemployment

 

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Real Work Force – 07/31/13

Graph - General - Decreasing - 01

The FedGov released its unemployment propaganda for July 2013 this week showing a 0.1% drop in the unemployment rate.  Our friends at ZeroHedge said, “So much for the trends of beats: July non-farm payrolls +162K missing expectations of 185K; June was revised lower to 188K and the unemployment rate dips from 7.5% to 7.4%. The rate dropped because the civilian labor force declined from 155,835 to 155,798 or 37K, driven by an increase of people not in labor force to 89,957 – just shy of the all time high. This also means that the labor force participation rate once again ticked down to 63.4% from 63.5%.”

FedGov and ZeroHedge calculations still don’t really show the true picture of employment in America.  They don’t answer this question:

Ignoring all demographics, who is in the wagon versus who is pulling the wagon?

How many people are working as a percent of all the people in the United States?  Once again, that number reversed its trend:

.RWF - 20130731 - Real Work Force - 01 .

At the end of Clinton’s administration, over 50% of the population in America were in the labor force!  That number stayed mostly the same and then increased through through the early parts of 2007.  That percentage has decreased since the beginning of 2007 and is now down by nearly 2%.  You’re welcome to comment below as to what happened in early 2007 to turn the trend around.

In today’s numbers, that’s a reduction of almost 6,000,000 jobs.

.Below is the percentage of change from month-to-month

RWF - 20130731 - Real Work Force (Percent Change) - 01

Labor Force Data from bls.gov:

RWF - 20130731 - Labor Force - 01

Population Estimate from census.gov

RWF - 20130731 - Population Estimate - 01

Things won’t get better in this country until millions more people are pulling the wagon!

 
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Posted by on August 2, 2013 in Economy, Unemployment

 

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Real Work Force – 03/31/13

Graph - General - Decreasing - 01

The FedGov released its unemployment propaganda for March 2013 this week showing a 0.1% drop in the unemployment rate.  Our friends at ZeroHedge calculated that the Real Unemployment Rate is now 11.6% instead of the FedGov’s drop from 7.7% to 7.6%.  The actual Labor Force declined by 496,000 and those not in the Labor Force increased by 660,000.

FedGov and ZeroHedge calculations still don’t really show the true picture of employment in America.  They don’t answer this question:

Ignoring all demographics, who is in the wagon versus who is pulling the wagon?

How many people are working as a percent of all the people in the United States?

RWF - 20130331 - Real Work Force - 01

At the end of Clinton’s administration, over 50% of the population in America were in the labor force!  That number stayed mostly the same and then increased through through the early parts of 2007.  That percentage has decreased since the beginning of 2007 and is now down by nearly 2%.  You’re welcome to comment below as to what happened in early 2007 to turn the trend around.

In today’s numbers, that’s a reduction of almost 6,000,000 jobs.

.Below is the percentage of change from month-to-month

RWF - 20130331 - Real Work Force (Percent Change) - 01

Labor Force Data from bls.gov:

RWF - 20130331 - Labor Force - 01

Population Estimate from census.gov

RWF - 20130331 - Population Estimate - 01

Things won’t get better in this country until millions more people are pulling the wagon!

 
Leave a comment

Posted by on April 6, 2013 in Economy, Unemployment

 

Tags: , ,

Real Work Force – 02/28/13

Graph - General - Decreasing - 01

Previously, after the release of monthly Unemployment Data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, I had done a couple of analyses looking at the labor force participation rate — the number of people the FedGov thinks is working versus the number of people that should be working.  After giving some further thought to the issue, it occurred to me that it still didn’t really show the true picture of employment in America.  It did not answer this question:

Ignoring all demographics, who is in the wagon versus who is pulling the wagon?

How many people are working as a percent of all the people in the United States?

.Real Work Force - 20130228 - 01 .

At the end of Clinton’s administration, over 50% of the population in America were in the labor force!  That number stayed mostly the same and then increased through through the early parts of 2007.  That percentage has decreased since the beginning of 2007 and is now down by nearly 2%.  You’re welcome to comment below as to what happened in early 2007 to turn the trend around.

In today’s numbers, that’s a reduction in 5,678,367 jobs.

.

Below is the percentage of change from month-to-month

.

Real Work Force (Percent Change) - 20130228 - 01.

Labor Force Data from bls.gov:

.

Labor Force - 20130228 - 01

.

Population Estimate from census.gov

.

Population Estimate - 20130228 - 01

.

If I forget to put out this analysis in future months, please remind me.  Things won’t get better in this country until millions more people are pulling the wagon!

 
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Posted by on March 9, 2013 in Economy, Unemployment

 

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Employment v Unemployment – December 2012

The Unemployment Rate is out again today with no change at 7.8% (apparently November 2012 was revised up to 7.8%), but there was an actual uptick in the labor force (155,319,000 up to 155,511,000).  The Labor Force Participation Rate remained unchanged at an anemic 63.6% (down from 65.7% at the start of Obama’s 1st term).

We can be heartened at the fact that another major exit from the work force did not occur.

Employment v Unemployment 20121231 - 01

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The graph continues to look ugly:

 
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Posted by on January 4, 2013 in Economy, Unemployment

 

Tags: , , ,

 
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